The Winner's Curse 下载 pdf 电子版 epub 免费 txt 2025

Richard Thaler challenges the received economic wisdom by revealing many of the paradoxes that abound even in the most painstakingly constructed transactions. He presents literate, challenging, and often funny examples of such anomalies as why the winners at auctions are often the real losers - they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse" - why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, why shoppers will save on one appliance only to pass up the identical savings on another, and why sports fans who wouldn't pay more than $200 for a Super Bowl ticket wouldn't sell one they own for less than $400. He also demonstrates that markets do not always operate with the traplike efficiency we impute to them.

暂无相关目录，正在全力查找中！

暂无相关内容，正在全力查找中

暂无出版社相关信息，正在全力查找中！

暂无相关书籍摘录，正在全力查找中！

在线阅读地址：The Winner's Curse在线阅读

在线听书地址：The Winner's Curse在线收听

在线购买地址：The Winner's Curse在线购买

这是人类思维的本性，一件你喜欢的并已据为己有使用了很长时间的物品，无论是一件财产还是一个观点，都会深深地根植于你的躯体之中，不管你是怎么得到的，在你没有对它产生厌倦并试图摆脱之前，它是不会轻易被夺走的。

库恩：发现开始于对反常事物的认知，进而，这种对自然以某种方式偏离了预定轨道的认知，指导了人正常的科学发展。

说谎的麻烦在于，你必须对所说的话有完美的记忆。

1月效应主要是小型公司效应。

A theorist will sweat long and hard on a problem, finally achieving a new insight previously unknown to economists. The theorist then assumes that the agents in a theoretical model act as if they also understood this new insight. In assuming that the agents in the economy intuitively grasp what it took so long to work out, the theorist is either showing uncharacteristic modesty and generosity, or is guilty of ascribing too much rationality to the agents in his model. As Kenneth Arrow (1986, p.391) has said:"We have the curious situation that scientific analysis imputes scientific behavior to its subjects. This need not be a contradiction, but it does seem to lead to an infinite regress."

Postdecision surprise will occur for any decision with great uncertainty and/or with many alternatives. Thus, the following should be true: For any organization hiring a new employee, the more candidates interviewed, the better the candidate they hire will be, and the more likely that candidate will fail to live up to the organization's expectations. Similarly, Brown (1974) discusses the case of capital investment projects within a firm. If many such projects are considered, and only a few are selected, then actual net revenues will tend to be less than projected, even if the projections are unbiased for the complete set of projects considered.

书籍介绍

Richard Thaler challenges the received economic wisdom by revealing many of the paradoxes that abound even in the most painstakingly constructed transactions. He presents literate, challenging, and often funny examples of such anomalies as why the winners at auctions are often the real losers - they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse" - why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, why shoppers will save on one appliance only to pass up the identical savings on another, and why sports fans who wouldn't pay more than $200 for a Super Bowl ticket wouldn't sell one they own for less than $400. He also demonstrates that markets do not always operate with the traplike efficiency we impute to them.

• 作者：K2 发布时间：2009-03-27 15:15:50

  大部分人做不到完全理性。

• 作者：十年一觉 发布时间：2014-04-28 19:57:47

  对日常经济生活中悖论和不规则现象的解释，帮助我们修正正统的经济理论，而新的理论突破则孕育其中。

• 作者：貘睫 发布时间：2011-01-23 20:19:16

  运气反转

• 作者：背对众生 发布时间：2020-05-20 08:09:55

  阎老爷子有点啰嗦。总体来说可以，入门。

  差强人意吧，条理清晰，严谨有余，文采不足，为市井之人量身定做。中规中矩，不偏不倚，因而并不出彩。

• 作者：Marvin 发布时间：2015-11-15 06:38:16

  Systematic error is a kind of error every human being makes. And if everyone is making it which makes it not an error at all. Those who get punished were just unlucky...

• 作者：eleholic 发布时间：2020-04-25 02:27:48

  自带缺陷的人类

• 等待和希望

  作者：人鱼小姐-joyce 发布时间：2007-09-02 22:10:03

  如果流落荒岛的时候你只能带上一本书，你的选择会是什么？

  我会毫不犹豫地选《基督山伯爵》！

  初识唐代斯是高中的一次偶然。某天在同学的座位里面发现一本超厚的书，那时甚至现在我也一直很迷恋那种厚书，总喜欢窝在床上或者坐在自习室里一鼓作气地读完。当时只读了几段就被深深吸引欲罢不能，匆匆去书店买了一套。因为买得这套书字比较小，读完之后眼睛一片模糊，心里却是一份挥之不去的酣畅淋漓，甚至一度绘声绘色地讲给我妹听，导致今日她也十分喜欢这本书。

  记得书的导言说，中国读者喜欢这本书很大程度上是因为书中的故事迎合了我们那种快意恩仇的武侠情结。我喜欢武侠，喜欢中国式的江湖，也很喜欢这个法国式的故事，一个关于复仇的故事。

  年轻有为的唐代斯，因为四个不同的原因遭到了四个人的联手陷害，在暗无天日的牢房呆了十几年。一个睿智的神甫帮他分析了局面，由此一颗复仇的火种也在他的心底开始燃烧......

  初读时，一些细微的场景让我久久难忘。法老号扬帆归来时的喜悦让我感动地流泪，他的老板终于解决了债务，而唐代斯也结束了报恩，开始那条真正的复仇之路。还有当马克西米连和他的妹妹一家邀请唐代斯做客，那种久违的家庭气氛和他们对唐代斯的爱也都让我无法忘怀。

  一连串完美的复仇计划在一步一步完成后，和海蒂乘船远走的唐代斯留下了：等待和希望。再读时才从纯粹的情节中脱离，开始慢慢体会这几个字的意义。

  《肖申克的救赎》中，Andy用耐心地等待终于成功越狱，可是对他而言，监狱生活中还有偶尔可以播放的音乐，还有他熟悉的数字和职业，还有朋友的交谈，而唐代斯，可怜的唐代斯拥有些什么？黑暗，无尽的黑暗，让若干年后的他拥有一双能够在黑暗中洞悉一切的眼睛。孤独，一个畅游在大海习惯于漂泊的人却被锁在一个海中小岛，莫大的讽刺！还好，让他遇见了神甫，一个睿智的老者，他开始有了希望，一个渴望交谈的希望。随后复仇的种子萌生，一生一切都只为了这个复仇的希望，为了这个希望他进入了漫长的等待，这是怎样的一种坚韧和忍耐才能够做到的！

  等待，永远都是一段漫长的征程，等待者总是会觉得时间过的太慢而慢慢耗尽热情，就这样错过了一片风景，一段缘份，一个爱人。如果神甫出现的再晚一些唐代斯是不是就会在绝食中离开人世呢，因为那时他没有希望，没有希望见到父亲，没有希望见到爱人，没有希望见到沉冤得雪的一天，只有拥有希望的等待才会让它长久。

  然而当希望太渺茫时，我们又太脆弱，早早地放弃了等待，所以我们仍在那间心灵的牢狱中无法逃离，只是现在这样卑微的活着，让希望在空气中漂浮。

  坚毅、忍耐、执著、冷静、从容，所有的这些都是唐代斯在等待中的品质，而我也相信，这些正是普通人所欠缺的，我们只是在放弃希望的时候，轻轻拥抱了一下阿Q先生，说上一句，这就是生活！再踏上一段新的征程。

  我仍抱着希望在等待中过活，等待着不断挖掘基督山的财宝，那或许不是让我富足的金银珠宝却是能够让我释然的心灵召唤，唐代斯，时间向前，而你亦没有让它淹没！

• 消灭图盲人人有责

  作者：豆丁洋 发布时间：2014-04-24 13:27:53

  这两天在当当选购绘本，看了些家长的评论，觉得大师们来到中国真是悲催死了……许多得奖的经典作品，被给差评的原因有“都是图没有字”、“太多字了小孩看不懂”、“才薄薄的几张纸卖那么贵”、”没什么内容，感觉有点坑“、”道理太深了小孩不能理解“、"这个风格小孩不喜欢"、”画风好丑，孩子被吓哭了“……真是让人哭笑不得(;´༎ຶД༎ຶ`)

  就跟《好绘本如何好》里面说的一样，这个社会上到处充斥着”图盲“。秉着消灭图盲人人有责的精神，窝决定推一下这本书，希望能有更多家长、准家长或童心未泯的人懂得欣赏绘本。