The Great Depression Ahead：How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History2010大崩溃: 更大的一波萧条即将来袭, 你准备好了吗? 下载 pdf 电子版 epub 免费 txt 2025

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.

Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.

He predicts the following:

• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm."

• Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.

• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.

• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.

• Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.

• A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020.

• The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.

Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

Acknowledgments

Prologue: Simple Principles Drive Complex Change

Chapter 1. The Great Crash of Late 2009-2010...and the Next Great Depression to Follow

Chapter 2. The Fundamental Trends That Drive Our Economy: Demographic and Technology Cycles

Chapter 3. New Geopolitical, Commodity, and Recurring Cycles: With Likely Stock and Economic Scenarios for Years and Decades Ahead

Chapter 4. The Greatest Bubble Ever in Real Estate: The Demographics of Real Estate, the Greater Credit Crisis, and the Likely Depression Scenario Ahead

Chapter 5. Echo Boomers Continue to Move to the Southeast, Southwest, and Rockies: Opportunities for Businesses, Developers, and Municipalities in the Downturn

Chapter 6. Changing Global Demographic Trends: The Rising East and Emerging World Versus the Succession of Aging Western Nations

Chapter 7. The Clustering of Risks and Returns: Why Traditional Asset Allocation Strategies Will Fail Miserably in the Decade Ahead

Chapter 8. Investment, Business, and Life Strategies for the Great Winter: How to Profit in a Deflationary Economy

Chapter 9. The Political and Social Impacts of the Next Great Depression: The Coming Revolution and "New Deal" in the United States and Globally

Index

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书籍介绍

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously. Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead , he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike. He predicts the following: • The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm." • Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200. • The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013. • Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks. • Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010. • A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020. • The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036. Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

• 作者：Licorice 发布时间：2020-05-09 13:36:59

  蛮实用

• 作者：豆友186536730 发布时间：2018-10-28 14:39:47

  无聊

• 作者：舞舞舞の奇鸟 发布时间：2019-09-09 18:39:46

  基本无趣

• 作者：Sophie 发布时间：2011-10-15 22:47:16

  看了阅读理解和写作两部分, 答案中的解析比较废.

• 作者：Sindre 发布时间：2011-08-13 12:51:35

  侧访了什么?一个建筑摄影师本身来访问就不合理...问的问题也很浅层次,每篇访谈都很短小，也没啥特别的启发性，不过唯一坚持问的问题是 你心目中的"Shelter"是什么样，这个问题还不错...反正也是一本随便看看的消遣的书

• 作者：ssssw 发布时间：2019-09-23 11:47:56

  亲切的封面，大学时的教材，豆瓣竟然有，简直是感动~

• 成就客户

  作者：slowisfast 发布时间：2020-05-25 21:26:26

• 鲜活的中世纪众生相

  作者：碧月清风 发布时间：2019-07-29 15:59:50

  今日的人们对于中世纪已然了解不多，骑士、十字军、城堡、庄园、黑死病、女巫，几乎是普通人能够了解的全部，中世纪被冠以“黑暗时代”的恶名长久存留在世人的浅薄印象中。然而事实并非如此，在长达千年的历史长河中，中世纪人也曾鲜活地存在过，中世纪也并非一无是处。只因年代久远，史料湮灭无闻，中世纪人的形象在今人的眼中如雾里看花地隔靴搔痒。

  在能够找到的有关中世纪的书籍中，《骑士时代》是专门讲述骑士传奇的，《中世纪的欧洲贵族》是定位贵族的，《中世纪有关死亡的生活》则是偏向13-16世纪的死亡话题。书写的历史总是偏爱重要人物和重要事件，而关于默默无闻的普通人则鲜有涉猎。然而，缺少描述普通人的历史由于缺少血肉显然不够丰满，也不真实。

  所幸，我们还有《中世纪人》这样的书籍可以阅读。英国作家艾琳·鲍尔的《中世纪人》是一部专门讲述中世纪人的著作，作家有意选择了不同时代、不同职业的6位普通人，通过讲述他们的生活，藉由账本、旅行者的传闻、主教的记录、家规家训等资料，以点带面、管中窥豹的再现中世纪社会生活的各方面，让读者接触到鲜活真实的中世纪人，重回那个漫长的时代。

  当西罗马帝国灭亡于西哥特人的铁蹄之下，宣告了中世纪黑暗时代的来临。然而文明与野蛮并非彼此不容的，野蛮固然具有强大的破坏力，而文明的同化作用亦不应小觑。当罗马大厦将倾，人口数量急剧减少，罗马更加依赖于野蛮人。艾琳·鲍尔通过撷取罗马作家中的四个人物，展示了从四世纪到六世纪的罗马人生活：公元四世纪的奥索尼乌斯，五世纪的圣希多尼乌斯·阿波黎纳里斯，六世纪的圣格列高利和福图纳图斯。这几人身份高贵，有学者、美食家、诗人、作家、主教，属于衣食无忧的阶层。在社会的巨变下，他们的生活几乎不受影响，表面平静如常，生活惬意美满。鲍尔认为生活节奏的缓慢掩盖了文明瓦解的暗流，而罗马人也在文明中陶然自乐，浑然不觉。

  在《中世纪人》一书出现的主角，波多是法国农民，马可·波罗是意大利旅行家，艾格伦蒂娜夫人是法国女修道院院长，梅纳杰的妻子是巴黎主妇，托马斯·贝森是英国羊毛商人，科格夏的托马斯·佩科克是英国布商。这其中除了马可·波罗因写有《马可·波罗游记》而名声大噪，跻身名人行列之外，其余几人完全默默无闻。

  波多虽是自由民，也在每周定期为庄园主承担部分工作。就连他的妻子也不得闲，一天到头忙得不亦尔乎。他们是固定于庄园上的人身自由的农民，也是处境悲惨的普通人。修道院拥有自己的庄园是普遍现象，修道士的生活建立在佃户、农奴等人的劳动基础上的；作为女修道院长的艾格伦蒂娜夫人也大致拥有一样的生活，她拥有超越普通修女的极大权利，女修道院上下对于世俗生活的向往，对于修道院生活的厌恶和背离也远超我们的想象；中世纪时，欧洲开始接触东方文化，马可·波罗的东方旅行记侧面见证了东西方贸易的蓬勃发展；中世纪实行的男女双方年龄相差很多的婚姻，常常有成年男子等待迎娶年龄尚小的十几岁妻子，中世纪人往往看重男方的身份、地位和前途，来决定将自己的女孩嫁过去；羊毛商和布商是英国毛纺织业中不可或缺的一环，托马斯·贝森和科格夏的托马斯·佩科克在商业上取得了成功，他们对待身后的安排和财富的态度却截然不同。

  中世纪人这个题材是如此宏大，以致于任何作家想要全面染指都难以胜任。鲍尔只选择中世纪时代较为常见的职业和他们的典型生活，以期尽可能多地把中世纪人这个群体呈现给读者。与其求大求全，不如在有限的人物中力图建构丰满有血有肉的人物，讲活个体的生活，也更容易做到。虽然，本书的不足之处也很多，但就其试图呈现一个真实可信的中世纪人群体的尝试，还是十分值得肯定的。